Will 2019 be a "golden" year?

After the gold price had been quite volatile in the first half of 2018, with at least euro-gold still performing slightly positive, it plummeted mid-year. Global demand also weakened, leading to an overselling in gold-based ETFs in the US. However, during the last quarter of 2018, the precious metal experienced a genuine comeback: both price and gold holdings managed to gain traction and even surpassed the losses incurred over the course of the year. Now, how will gold perform in 2019? Current estimates by commodity experts and analysts prove predominantly positive.

As early as in February 2018, Swiss financial manager Feix Zulauf considered a significant strengthening of the gold price in 2019 possible. In late 2018, Markus Bußler of "Der Aktionär" predicted a price jump to over US$1,400 for an ounce of gold. In addition to unresolved problems such as Brexit in March and the possible intensification of the US-Chinese trade war, analysts from J.P. Morgan and the world's largest asset manager Blackrock quoted the expectation of weaker global economic growth and declining corporate profits as the main reasons.

A softened interest rate policy might well support the gold price

In view of the massive slumps on the stock markets, the Fed announced a mere two rate hikes this year instead of the originally planned three. In 2018, the Fed had raised the key interest rate four times. Goldman Sachs analysts have interpreted this mitigation as a further indicator of a strong year 2019 for gold, especially in light of the sustained weakness of the US dollar expected by them. Financial experts also regard the significant price gains in shares of mining companies as well as above-average gold purchases by numerous central banks as positive signals that gold might do better in 2019 than over long stretches of the previous year.