Will 2018 also be a "golden" year?
News Arnulf Hinkel, financial journalist – 19.01.2018
According to Commerzbank analysts, the uptrend in the gold price, which has been going on for two consecutive years, is likely to continue in 2018. The bank's market experts cite the persistently low real interest rates and the continuing political uncertainty in the US and Europe as reasons for their assumption.
John Reade, chief market strategist of the World Gold Council, attaches particular importance to the further development of the gold price in the monetary policies of the various regions and countries. He assumes that not only the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise key interest rates, but that the ECB as well as the Bank of Japan will start to curb their monetary policy measures. The Fed has also planned a balance sheet reduction of up to US$2.5 trillion over the next years. Like many other analysts, however, Reade believes that all monetary tightening efforts will be implemented with caution. At the same time, an end of the US bull market with already highly valued stocks could boost the currently rather weak demand for gold overseas. Reade also sees indications of a strengthening gold demand in China, the world's largest gold market. Here, he believes that demand might increase by up to 6.4 per cent, after decreasing significantly in the entire Asian region in 2017 with a 12.8 per cent outflow of gold funds.
Regarding Germany, the third-largest market for bullions and gold coins in 2017, the World Gold Council's chief market strategist identified consistently positive signals: with steadily decreasing unemployment rates and the economy continuing to boom, the course has been set for the world champions in gold investment to once again live up to their name in 2018.
