Waiting for Godot

Market report Michael Blumenroth – 29.02.2024

Weekly Market Report

As was almost to be expected from the outset, financial markets have been highly cautious throughout the week, with a focus on data to be published this Thursday afternoon or Friday. The figures most anticipated are the US core PCE rate, a measure of personal consumer spending monitored particularly closely by the Fed, to be released this (Thursday) afternoon at 2:30 CET, before February inflation data for the Eurozone is released on Friday, the highlight of the week in the Eurozone.

Thus far, the week has more or less seen last week’s trends continue. Expectations of central bank rate cuts were priced out further on the interest rate futures markets. The ECB is now expected to make fewer than four rate cuts – more likely three – starting in June. For the Fed, slightly more than three rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points each are expected. Government bond yields therefore remained at a high level.

Stock markets indecisive, gold moves sideways

The euro remained within an extremely narrow trading range against the US dollar. The stock markets are clearly lying low in anticipation of the upcoming economic data, with no clear direction. While the DAX rushed from record high to record high, US indices took a breather. Ultimately, gold prices also moved sideways until this morning (Thursday).

Last Friday, gold traded at 2,021 US$ per ounce. On the same day, it traded at a low of 2,016 and a high of 2,041. It has since remained in the vicinity of the 2,030 mark and kicked off trading today at US$ 2,036 per ounce.

Slight weekly gain for Xetra-Gold

Xetra-Gold is also trading slightly higher than last Friday. It climbed from 60.05 € per gram to a weekly high of around 60.50 yesterday afternoon. This morning, trading was expected around a relatively firm 60.40.

In addition to month-end, today’s focus is on the core PCE rate, as mentioned above, before next week’s ECB meeting on Thursday and US labour market data, to be published Friday, could cause some movement on the markets.

I wish all readers a relaxing spring weekend.

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