The traditionally strongest months for gold

The gold price rally of the last few weeks was due to a number of reasons: lower interest rates for government bonds in the US and Europe due to new recession fears and the weaker US dollar, amongst others. Empirically, however, January is generally a good time for gold investors. No other month of the year has seen the gold price rise so frequently and strongly over the past 52 years. Statistically, gold gains an average of 2.78 per cent in January. So, what about the other months?

8 out of 12 months generate gains

May, November, February, August, September, July and April: according to the World Gold Council and the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association), gold, on average, has developed profitably in these months since 1970 – in descending order, with price increases of a maximum of 1.76 per cent, and a minimum of 0.02 per cent. However, no month even comes close to top performer January. Statistically, weak performance of the precious metal over the past 52 years is especially pronounced in March, at an average of -0.62 per cent, but has also – albeit to a lesser extent – been recorded for June, October, and December.

How reliable is data collected over 52 years?

A critical look at the individual results for the front-runner January reveals that the gold price has only gained in 43 cases in this month since 1970. A full 19 times, the precious metal closed January with a loss. The past three years’ performance also shows rather mixed results: while the gold price in January 2023 proved the empirical data right and performed well, the precious metal closed atypically in both January 2022 and January 2021. To conclude: while the probability of a positive gold price development in January is more than twice as high as that of a negative one, this observation is a mere indication of tendency and does not allow a reliable forecast.