Little change – will the gold price consolidate?

Market report Michael Blumenroth – 04.04.2019

Weekly market report

The week, so far, has been quiet, and as I am off to the “Invest” fair in Stuttgart, my commentary comes a day early. By and large, economic optimism seems to have returned to the markets due to the expectation that a settlement in the trade dispute between the US and China is imminent, which would take pressure off the markets.

Upbeat mood across stock markets

Strong economic data from China (purchasing managers' indices) and purchasing managers' indices for services in Europe that exceeded expectations also had a particularly soothing effect on the stock markets, as did the fact that a “soft” Brexit for Britain might be possible after all. All in all, major investors in the stock markets might still be underinvested.

This mixed situation led to some significant rises across the leading global indices. At the same time, market interest rates/yields on government bonds rose again, leaving behind most of the previous week’s lows. The currency markets, on the other hand, remained calm, with the currencies of a number of gold-producing countries improving slightly over the course of the week.

Weaker demand for safe havens

Optimism and rising stock prices put some pressure on gold as a safe haven, while on the other hand, the global economic situation remains uncertain. The slightly weaker US dollar over the course of the week supported the gold price somewhat. So far, the week has seen little movement:

Gold traded at 1,288 $/ounce on Friday morning last week. It climbed to 1,299.75 $/ounce on Friday afternoon, already marking the weekly high. Later in the week, it lacked direction and on Tuesday reached its weekly low at 1,285.50 $/ounce. There has been little momentum since; gold currently trades at 1,291 $/ounce. 

Since last Friday, the euro has also been quite sluggish against the US dollar, moving between 1.1184 and 1.1254 €/US$, so its impact on the gold price in euro this week has thus far been modest. The euro currently trades almost exactly at the previous week's level (marginally cheaper).

Narrow trading range for Xetra-Gold

The price of Xetra-Gold rose from 36.85 €/gram last Friday morning to a weekly high of 37.20 €/gram in the afternoon of the same day. On Monday morning and Thursday afternoon, Xetra-Gold slipped twice to a weekly low of around €36.90/gram – with intermediate recoveries in a very modest trading range. It currently trades at approximately 37.00 €/gram.

The markets are now waiting for news in the US-China trade conflict, which could cause turbulence in the markets. Tomorrow (Friday) at 14:30, the focus will be on the monthly US labour market data.

I wish all our readers a relaxing weekend.

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