Light tailwind

Market report Michael Blumenroth – 01.09.2023

Weekly market report

New month, new luck. Meteorologically, summer said goodbye yesterday, but a golden autumn might still follow the extremely varied weather here in the Rhine-Main region (first too hot, then cold, first dry, then precipitation to the point of flooding cellars...).
Over the course of the week, we saw the signals turn in favour of rising gold prices, kicked off on Tuesday by US economic data which sent the yields of US Treasury bonds south. Both the JOLTS report on job openings in the US private sector and the consumer confidence index by the Conference Board market research institute dipped more significantly than analysts had expected on average. 

Bonds and US dollar under pressure

The consequences of these data were most immediately perceptible on the bond markets. Last week, yields of US Treasuries reached levels not seen for a long time (10-year yields were around 4.35, 30-year yields at 4.47 and two-year yields at over 5 per cent), but this week saw a significant downturn. Ten-year US Treasuries, for example, intermittently yielded 4.07 per cent yesterday afternoon. 

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the US dollar therefore also came under some pressure, which in turn additionally boosted gold prices. Yesterday afternoon, however, there was a countermovement, at least against the euro. The euro was sold off in light of a drooping core inflation rate (inflation rate excluding energy and food prices) in the eurozone in August, increasing the likelihood of a pause in ECB interest rate hikes the week after next. 

Gold in US dollar and euro with slight weekly gain

Last Friday, gold traded at 1,914 US$ per ounce. Shortly before the close of the week, it dipped to 1,904 and went back to 1,915 on Friday evening. The precious metal then trended upwards and reached a weekly high of 1,949 on Wednesday afternoon and has since been trading sideways or slightly lighter, starting the European trading day this morning at around 1,942. 

Xetra-Gold also strengthened. From 57.05 € per gram and its weekly low at 56.80, both last Friday, it rose to 57.60 yesterday and was expected to start trading this morning at around 57.55.

Today, US labour market data will be the likely focus of market interest. After the upcoming US bank holiday on Monday, most market players should be back from their summer break, preparing for the various central bank meetings in September. 

I wish all readers a relaxing and perhaps even sunny weekend. 

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