Is there an ideal month to buy gold?
News Arnulf Hinkel, Financial journalist – 21.12.2018
"Goldreporter" analysed the monthly gold price trends from 1970 to 2017, and came to surprising results.
In addition to fairly unpredictable geological developments and announced interest rate hikes, gold speculators take into account events that occur regularly, such as the Indian wedding season from September to November. With data from the World Gold Council, the German financial news website "Goldreporter" analysed the monthly gold price trends from 1970 to 2017, and came to surprising results.
Strongest gold price increases in January and May
Over the past 47 years, the gold price has risen by an average of 2.91 per cent in January – a greater increase than in any other month. The month of May proved to be the second-strongest with an average increase of 1.76 per cent, and February came in third at 1.0 per cent. The picture, however, is by no means as clear as it might look, as an analysis of the individual months has shown: even with the "star month" January, the gold price rose only in 13 out of 17 cases since 2000, empirically marking the month as the best and most reliable in terms of performance for the gold price by far – compared to its development throughout the other months.
December may be golden – but not for the gold price
Although the Christmas month tends to spread sparkle and cheer, it is empirically not a good time to buy gold, at least in early December: since 1970, there has been an average price decline of 0.15 per cent, in 1972 even spiking at 0.28 per cent. These may not be significant losses, but a look at the statistics on how often the gold price decreased in December makes the picture much clearer: 29 out of 45 times since 1972, the price of gold in December has decreased. Given all this data, gold speculators could learn from the statistics, which span 47 years, to wait for gold price drops in December to buy the precious metal and then make a quick profit from the price rise in January. However, investors should bear in mind that valid rules can never be derived from empirical data. And even if it were possible, there would still be the exceptions to prove the rule. Gold, as a long-term investment, is a portfolio stabilizer and safe haven in times of crisis, but as a short-time investment for speculators, it bears high risks.