Donald Trump ante portas?

Market report Michael Blumenroth – 04.11.2016

Weekly market report

This time last week, Hillary Clinton was so far ahead of Donald Trump in the national polls, she seemed invincible. Since then, things have taken a turn: last Friday evening, markets reacted in shock following the news that the FBI would likely resume investigations regarding Clinton’s private e-mail server.  

The markets rightfully interpreted the news as beneficial to the Trump campaign, increasing the republican candidate’s chances. If Trump was indeed elected president, uncertainty would spread across the markets. Market observers predict that stock prices would initially fall, along with the US dollar. To avoid similar losses as those following the Brexit vote, a number of market participants accordingly have already liquidated their positions in stocks and US dollars during the course of the week. The DAX has taken a downward turn, consistently falling throughout the past six days and currently remains weak due to the increasingly uncertain outcome of the US presidential election alongside a stronger euro. Looking into the US stock markets as well as the global market situation, things are also under pressure, causing investors to seek refuge in safe havens: the Swiss franc, the yen, and of course gold.

Last Friday saw gold trading at 1,269 US$/ounce. It climbed steadily upwards to Wednesday’s weekly high of 1,308 US$/ounce, fell back to 1,286 US$/ounce yesterday afternoon and settled at 1,300 US$/ounce at the close of trading, where it has since remained.

Xetra-Gold investors also saw a sound weekly gain, albeit dampened by the stronger euro: from 37.40 €/gram a week ago it climbed to its weekly high of 37.80 €/gram on Wednesday and currently trades at 37.70 €/gram.  

Today’s US labour market data might cause the markets to budge, should they turn out surprising in one direction or the other. The much more decisive factor for the near future of the gold prices will however be the outcome of the US presidential race next Tuesday. As a rule of thumb we can already determine that if Clinton wins the election, the initial effect will be a weakening of gold and the euro. If, against all odds, Trump wins the ticket to the White House, we will see much more dramatic movement across the charts.

So for now, let’s enjoy the calm and the weekend ahead. 

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