A fresh start

Market report Michael Blumenroth – 06.01.2017

Weekly market report

First off, I would like to wish a Happy New Year to all our readers, may you spend it in good health and your investments be successful.

For most markets, the week kicked off a day late as Monday was a bank holiday across all major trading venues except Central Europe. However, once the exchanges opened on Monday – certainly also due to the tension common at the beginning of the year – they cut to the chase straightaway.

Precious metals kicked off successfully, if not as forcefully as Usain Bolt but still satisfactory for investors. Platinum, for example, gained seven percentage points and palladium more than nine. Gold started off the year with slightly less enthusiasm, but with a gain of roughly 2.5 per cent, its position remains sound.

A week ago, gold traded at 1,159 US$/ounce and closed the year at 1,151 US$/ounce. Yesterday afternoon, it slowly but steadily climbed to its weekly high of 1,185 US$/ounce. Last night, it slackened slightly and currently trades at 1,175 US$/ounce.  

There are a number of reasons for the rising gold price: since Tuesday evening, the US dollar has slackened, after Reuters’ DXY index had climbed to its 14-year high. Simultaneously, the euro negatively mirrored this development with a 14-year low against the strong dollar. Since then, the US dollar as well as US government bonds’ returns have, to the surprise of most market participants, eased significantly. Excellent global economic data (purchasing managers index for the industrial sector) and thereby budding hopes for the economy caused demand for precious and base metals to rise, along with a subtle lookout for safe havens – especially by Chinese investors, where futures markets for yuan lending contracts had a turbulent week.

Investors in the euro zone saw profits during the now ending week, only slightly slowed down by the modest rise of the euro against the US dollar. From 35.45 €/gram exactly a week ago and 35.30 €/gram at year-end, the Xetra-Gold price climbed to its weekly high of 35.99 €/gram on Wednesday around noon. It currently trades at 35.70 €/gram.

Before the week closes, the Markets eagerly await US labour market data, to be published today at 2:30 p.m. CET, which always holds the – at times inexplicable – potential to move the markets. A more important date, however, is 20 January, the day that Donald Trump reports for service in the White House. The markets eagerly await the first measures of the new government, next week will therefore most likely be marked by quiet anticipation of market participants.

To all our readers: have a wonderful, frosty weekend.

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