A convincing start to the year

Market report Michael Blumenroth – 05.01.2018

Weekly market report

I wish all of you a happy, healthy and successful 2018 – a golden year, if you will.  

In fact, gold made an impressive start to the New Year. Last Friday, the last trading day in 2017, the precious metal had already reclaimed its 1,300 US$/ounce mark, adding further gains in the course of this week to reach a four-month high.

This has several reasons. First, the US dollar was particularly weak until Wednesday, having declined for seven consecutive days according to the DXY Index, which measures the US dollar against the other nine G10 currencies. Towards the end of the year, 10-year US Treasury yields declined slightly, and commodities advanced overall: oil climbed to a three-year high; copper continues to trade near its highest level in four years and palladium even reached a 16-year high. As a result, voices have been increasing that in the medium term, inflation may (or should, really) increase more than currently forecast.  

All in all, this presented a fairly friendly environment for the most precious of metals. While still trading 1,296 US$/ounce on Friday morning, it rose to 1,307 US$/ounce in the afternoon, a level not seen since September. On Wednesday, gold traded at 1,320 US$/ounce, before temporarily declining by 15 US$ due to a counter move in the US currency. Yesterday, the precious metal steadily advanced to 1,326 US$/ounce; and this morning we saw some apparent profit taking, with gold currently trading at 1,318 US$/ounce.

Measured in euro, gold was also able to post gains this week, with Xetra-Gold rising from 34.85 €/gram last Friday to 35.25 €/gram on Wednesday. It currently trades at 35.15 €/gram.

We are expecting employment data from the US this afternoon. However, market observers should soon turn their focus back on the major central banks’ monetary policy for 2018. 

Due to scheduling issues, I may not be able to write a market report next week. I wish all readers a relaxing, rain-free weekend and a good start to the new week.  

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