US analysts revise their gold price forecasts upwards

Although stock indices such as the S&P 500 are reaching record highs while the US economic outlook is favourable, gold has staged a surprisingly persistent rally in recent weeks – in North America much as in Europe. Even for many commodities experts at major banks, this has been surprising. The price per ounce of gold has risen 13.67 per cent year on year to 2,201 US$ (as at 20 March 2024), surpassing its previous all-time high of 2,196 on 11 March 2024. Perhaps for this reason, a number of analysts from renowned financial institutions have, once again, significantly raised their gold price forecasts for the end of 2024.

JP Morgan expects 2,500 US$ per ounce of gold by the end of the year

With a forecast of 2,500 US$ per ounce made in an interview with Bloomberg TV, a J. P. Morgan commodities analyst was even more optimistic than her colleagues at investment bank Morgan Stanley, who expect gold to close the year at 2,300 US$. Based on a starting price of  2,066 US$, the stated gold price targets would correspond to respective performances of 21 per cent in the J.P. Morgan scenario, and 11.3 per cent in the Morgan Stanley forecast. With regard to the current gold rally: for April, analysts at New York investment bank Jefferies expect the gold performance to exceed the development of the S&P 500 – a US stock index that has gained 31 per cent over the last twelve months and continues to rush from record high to record high.

There are also less euphoric voices and forecasts

While US investment bank Goldman Sachs recently raised its gold price forecast from 2,090 US$ at the end of last year to 2,180 and most recently –  on 19 March 2024 – to 2,300, a Barclays Bank strategist has warned against excessive optimism and points out that investors have already priced in expected interest rate cuts by the Fed. However, the US monetary authorities confirmed on 20 March that three interest rate cuts are still to be expected this year if the economic and inflation data are favourable, making analysts’ widespread euphoria quite understandable.