Gold performance in 2024: 25 analysts’ forecasts

As part of the “2024 Precious Metals Forecast Survey” commissioned by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), 25 analysts and precious metals experts from around the world were asked to quantify and elaborate their views on this year’s development of the dollar gold price per ounce. As the analysts were asked to indicate a price corridor instead of a fixed forecast price, an average value was calculated for each forecast when the survey was analysed.

Forecast price corridors from under 1,800 to 2,235 US$ per ounce of gold

The survey results show that at the time of the survey a few weeks ago, even many of the market experts had not anticipated the most recent gold price rally: only 3 of the 25 analysts surveyed predicted a higher average gold price than the current all-time high of US$2,156.81 (as of 7 February 2024). However, the forecasts compared to the average price of the precious metal year-to-date, which is around US$100 lower, there are already 18 analysts who expect gold to perform better by the end of 2024. Only seven analysts expect a lower average annual price.

Decisive factors for the gold price trend

All 25 analysts agreed on the factors that will drive or slow down the performance of the precious metal this year: by how much will the Fed cut interest rates in 2024 and how stable will the US dollar prove? Will the US currency come under pressure due to the partial de-Dollarisation of foreign currency reserves, especially in emerging markets, and will central banks continue their record gold purchases of 2022/23? The question of whether and how the current geopolitical crises can be contained is also vital to the development of the gold price, as is the outcome of the US elections in November 2024. The analysts’ individual assessments of how and to what extent the aforementioned factors will develop were decisive for the respective forecasts.