There are recurring seasonal events that influence the gold price through sharply rising jewelry demand, such as Chinese New Year in the spring, Western holidays and the wedding season in India in the fall. However, the precious metal’s performance depends on so many other factors that no reliable trends can be derived from these alone. Various analyses of gold price seasonality nonetheless conclude that quite clear statements can be drawn from average gold price movements over as many as five and a half decades. What this means for retail investors’ investment decisions.
Surprisingly clear trends over decades
Both the analysis of gold price movements from July 1996 to July 2026 by financial data provider Seasonax, which specializes in seasonal price fluctuations, and the evaluation in the “In Gold we trust” report 2026, covering early 1970 through the end of 2025, paint a clear picture: January, February, May, July, September and December are empirically the best months for gold price performance. By contrast, March, June and October are traditionally the months with the heaviest losses for the precious metal.
Over the long term, gold performs strongest
Anyone hoping to use gold price seasonality for quick gains is likely to be disappointed. Average gains of no more than 1.6 percent in January and losses of no more than -0.2 percent in March and June are not enough, given the transaction costs incurred, to justify short-term purchases or sales. Rather, the look back shows that gold has recorded strong performance primarily over longer periods. Anyone in the eurozone who invested in gold two years ago saw a return of more than 80 percent, despite this year’s price correction.