Even if the mid-year performance of gold stings somewhat – particularly given the recent record highs of €146 per gram and 5,417 US$ per ounce – the precious metal is currently down 3.18 percent in the eurozone and 6.08 percent overseas. Nevertheless, gold has more than held its own over the past 12 months. Investors who entered the market in mid-2025 have, as of early July 2026, seen gains of 25 percent in euro terms and 26 percent in US dollar terms. This was made possible by a remarkable gold rally that, in the eurozone alone, produced price gains of 47.5 percent in 2025 and 34 percent in 2024 – ensuring that gold not only served as portfolio protection, but also made a meaningful contribution to overall portfolio returns.
Only emerging market equities outperformed gold on average
According to an analysis by the World Gold Council, the gold industry body, published as part of the “Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026” released at end of July 2026, gold has outperformed developed market equities, commodities, the US dollar, and both US and global government bonds since mid-2025, despite its losses in recent months. Even the average performance of the US equity market – buoyed by high-returning technology and AI companies – fell short of that of the precious metal. Compared with the return of a well-balanced average investment portfolio of just under 14 percent, gold's 25 percent gain stood out clearly.
How far could the gold price fall?
This is a question any credible analyst will decline to answer. In its latest publication, the World Gold Council examined significant gold price declines from 1971 to 2026 in the United States, seeking at least an empirical approximation. In most cases – 11 out of 19 – the maximum drawdown was around 30 percent, measured from the previous record high. While the analysis is instructive, it does not offer reliable conclusions about the gold price's future trajectory. Worth watching in this context is the Xetra-Gold Goldwissen podcast, episode 126, titled “Why the right entry point is yet to come, ” featuring Philipp Vorndran of Flossbach von Storch. Available at Youtube.com.