The year 2026 may not be over quite yet, but we are gradually entering the home stretch with a full schedule of central bank meetings this week (including today’s meetings of the ECB, the Bank of England, the central banks of Sweden, Norway, the Czech Republic, and Mexico, and tomorrow’s meeting of the Bank of Japan). None of these are likely to have a significant impact on the market, as the central banks are expected to act in line with market expectations, with the exception of the Bank of Japan meeting, which might cause some movement.
US labor market data confirms Fed interest rate Policy
The week kicked off with great anticipation for the US labor market data for October and November, which was published on Tuesday. The results were mixed: in October, the number of non-farm payrolls dropped by 105,000 but November saw the number of employees rise slightly above expectations by 64,000 month on month. Unemployment jumped from 4.4 percent in September to 4.6 percent in November, its highest level since September 2021. Overall, market participants took the data to mean that the probability of further Fed key interest rate cuts next year has not decreased.
The data caused the US dollar to fall to its lowest level against the euro in almost three months before recovering slightly on Wednesday, with the prospect of further interest rate cuts in the US and a weaker US dollar boosting prices across all precious metals.
Gold trades above 4,300 US$ per ounce
While the gold price stood at 4,285 US$ per ounce last Friday morning, it jumped to 4,353 on the same day. Profit-taking ahead of the weekend caused it to drop by just under 100 US$ per ounce on Friday afternoon before closing the week at 4,300. Since the beginning of the week, gold has been trading within the vicinity of this mark and rose to 4,350 yesterday. This morning, the precious metal was trading at 4,335 US$ per ounce.
Strong euro slows Xetra-Gold
The Xetra-Gold price was once again slightly dampened by the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar, rising from 117.40 € per gram last Friday morning to 119.20 on Friday afternoon before depreciating intraday. Over the course of the week, the Xetra-Gold price fluctuated between 117 and 119 € per gram. It was expected to start trading this morning at around 118.60.
Overall strong year for precious metals
This week’s focus once again was on the “white” precious metals: silver jumped from one record high to another and has gained around 130 percent since the beginning of the year. Platinum rose by 110 percent and palladium by around 80 percent. By comparison, the 65 percent gain of the gold price may seem almost modest – but then again, hardly anyone could have predicted at the beginning of the year that gold would reach 4,350 US$ per ounce by mid-December.
Next market commentary on January 8, 2026
Although most traders in Asia will be working over the next two weeks, trading desks elsewhere are likely to remain vacant. And while I will be working between Christmas and New Year, my next gold market commentary will be published on January 8 – unless unforeseen market developments dictate otherwise.
I wish all readers joyful holidays and a Happy New Year.